Ini adalah perbandingan CAGR antara berbagai top investor yang ada di dunia. Serta berbagai prinsip mereka.

Prinsip Kerja Joel Greenblatt Magic Formula

Here is the definitive protocol. You can print this out, translate it, or pass it to your team. It is structured to remove emotion and minimize transaction costs in the Indonesian market.

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The Greenblatt “Rolling” Magic Formula Protocol (Modified, not Original)

Strategy Type: Systematic Value Accumulation (Dollar Cost Averaging)
Time Horizon: 1 Year per Stock
Goal: Buy good businesses (High ROIC) at cheap prices (High Earnings Yield) without timing the market.

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Phase 1: The Setup (Do This Once)

1. Define Your Universe:
   • Filter: Market Cap > IDR 1 Trillion (to ensure liquidity).
   • Shariah Compliance: Filter for ISSI or JII index members only.
2. Define Your Metrics (The Magic Formula):
   • Rank 1: High Return on Capital (ROIC).
   • Rank 2: High Earnings Yield (EBIT / Enterprise Value).
   • Combined Rank: The best combination of both.
3. Determine Monthly Capital:
   • Commit a fixed amount of Rupiah every month (e.g., IDR 5,000,000).

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Phase 2: The Execution (Monthly Routine)

Rule: You are building a “Conveyor Belt.” Every month, you put new boxes on the belt. They stay on the belt for exactly 12 months.

Month 1 to Month 12 (Accumulation Phase)

• Step 1: Run the Magic Formula screen using current data.
• Step 2: Identify the Top 3 stocks on the list.
• Step 3: Check your portfolio.
  • Do I already own a full position in these?
  • NO: Buy them with your monthly capital.
  • YES: Move down the list to the next highest-ranked stock you don’t own, OR add to your existing position if you are under-weight.
• Step 4: STOP. Do not sell anything. Do not check prices daily.

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Phase 3: The Maintenance (Year 2 Onwards)

This is where the “Rolling” magic happens. Let’s say it is January 2027. You have a “Jan 2026 Batch” that is now 1 year old.

The Routine:

1. Generate the “Jan 2027” Top List (Fresh Data).
2. Review the “Jan 2026 Batch” (Stocks bought 1 year ago).
3. Apply the “Lazy Hold” Decision Tree:

Status of Old Stock (Jan ’26 Batch)	Is it on the Fresh Jan ’27 Top List?	Action to Take
Stock A	❌ NO	SELL. Take the cash + profit/loss.
Stock B	❌ NO	SELL. Take the cash + profit/loss.
Stock C	✅ YES (Still Top Ranked)	KEEP. Do not sell. Do not pay tax. Treat this old stock as one of your “New” Jan 2027 picks.

4. Re-Invest:
   • Pool the cash from the sold stocks (A & B) + Your New Monthly Salary.
   • Buy the Top Stocks from the Jan 2027 List to fill your slots.
   • Example: If the list says Buy C, Y, Z… and you kept C… you only need to buy Y and Z.

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The 3 Golden Rules

1. The “Batch Hygiene” Rule
Never touch a stock before its 1st birthday.

• If you bought UNTR in March 2026, and you are reviewing your portfolio in January 2027, ignore UNTR. Its alarm clock doesn’t ring until March.

2. The “Fresh Fish” Rule
Always buy from the current month’s list.

• If you have money in February, look at the February list. Never add money to a “January idea” just because you liked it last month. Prices change. Value changes.

3. The “Indonesian Friction” Rule
Don’t churn.

• In Indonesia, selling costs you ~0.20% (Broker + Tax) and buying costs ~0.15%. That is 0.35% loss every time you flip a stock.
• If a stock stays in the Top List for 2 years, holding it saves you that 0.35%. This is the only “free lunch” in the market.

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Summary Visualization

Month	Action
Jan ’26	Buy Top 3 (Batch 1).
Feb ’26	Buy Top 3 (Batch 2).
…	…
Jan ’27	Sell Batch 1 (unless they are still Top 3). Buy Fresh Top 3.
Feb ’27	Sell Batch 2 (unless they are still Top 3). Buy Fresh Top 3.

This is the system. It is boring. It requires no genius. And that is exactly why it works.

Greenblatt Magic Formula vs Others (1)

A 2024 study evaluates the formula for the U.S. market from 1963 to 2022 and compares it with the performance of the Piotroski F-Score, Acquirer’s Multiple, and Conservative Formula. The study finds that all four formulas generate significant raw and risk-adjusted returns, primarily by providing efficient exposure to well-established style factors. However, no single formula consistently outperforms across all performance metrics. While the Acquirer’s Multiple achieves the highest returns for top decile portfolios and the Conservative Formula leads in CAPM alpha and return spread, the Magic Formula exhibits the highest remaining alpha after adjusting for common factors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_formula_investing

Greenblatt Magic Formula vs Others (2)

Ada thesis S2 MBA ITB, juga menghasilkan kesimpulan yang sama, untuk Bursa Efek Indonesia. Acquirer’s Formula lebih bagus daripada Magic Formula. Sharpe ratio lebih aman, profit lebih tinggi. Di gambar sebelumnya, juaranya untuk New York Stock Exchange juga Acquirer’s Multiple. Ratio = Formula = Multiple, beda istilah, very same thing.

Magic Formula Again

Indeks KOMPAS100 dipilih untuk pasar saham Indonesia. Pengembalian dari portofolio Magic Formula kemudian dibandingkan dengan pengembalian pasar. Rebalancing portofolio dilakukan tahunan. Analisis Sharpe, Treynor dan Jensen’s Alpha digunakan untuk mengukur pengembalian yang disesuaikan dengan risiko.

Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dengan menggunakan return on capital dan earning yield mampu menghasilkan pengembalian rata-rata yang lebih tinggi daripada indeks pasar dari April 2013 sampai dengan April 2018. Portofolio Magic Formula menghasilkan pengembalian rata-rata 12.67% dan pasar menghasilkan pengembalian rata-rata 5.31% selama periode yang diuji.

Analisis Strategi Investasi Magic Formula pada Bursa Efek Indonesia — Miftahul Jannah, Fadlul Imansyah, https://ejournal.upi.edu/index.php/JRAK/article/view/17698

This study focus on applying Greenblatt’s magic formula (2006) and some of its simple adaptations in the Indonesian Stock Exchange over the period of April 2006 to April 2022. Over the full sample period, all tested variations of the magic formula are able to outperform the market with GMF30 portfolio showing 28.05% CAGR as the best performing portfolio whereas the JKSE index return 7.83% CAGR. On a volatility adjusted basis, the GMF30 earns a 0.89 Sharpe ratio and a 1.78 Sortino ratio whereas the JKSE yields a sharpe ratio of 0.17 and a Sortino ratio of 0.26. Though, this study found that the performance of the original magic formula and its adaptations to be far greater in magnitude over the first half of the study period (2006 – 2013) in comparison to the latter half (2014 – 2021),

In this research, three variations of the magic formula are used; the original magic formula (referred to in this study as MF), PE magic formula (referred to in this study as PMF), and gross return magic formula (referred to in this study as GMF). The PE-MF was inspired by Sareewiwatthana (2011), whereas the GMF formula was inspired by Novy-Marx (2013) and Blackburn9 (2017)

Muhammad Naga Abhista Kuncoro, https://thesis.eur.nl/pub/63042/Thesis_Final_Naga-625215-.pdf

Which One to Pick in Indonesia? Magic or Acquirer?

Gemini’s Take:

Despite the data favoring Acquirer’s Multiple, your specific “Lazy Hold” and “Indonesian Friction” rules make Greenblatt Magic Formula the safer implementation for three reasons …

The “Value Trap” Defense: As you correctly noted, the Indonesian market is rife with “value traps”—companies that look cheap (low EV/EBIT) but are actually dying or laden with hidden debt issues (common in construction/infrastructure sectors). Greenblatt’s ROIC filter acts as a quality control mechanism, ensuring you don’t buy “junk” just because it’s on sale. Acquirer’s Multiple buys the junk, betting on mean reversion.

The Psychology of Holding: You are building a “conveyor belt” system where you hold stocks for 12 months. It is much harder to hold a “bad” company (Acquirer’s Multiple pick) that is dropping in price than a “good” company (Magic Formula pick) that is dropping. The “Quality” factor of Greenblatt gives you the conviction to hold through volatility.

Marginal Difference: The difference in annual return was negligible (less than 0.1%). Is it worth dropping the “Quality” safety net for an extra 0.08% return? Likely not.For Maximum “Sleep Well at Night”: Stick to Magic Formula. It filters out the “garbage” companies that often trap investors in Indonesia. For Maximum “Aggressive Alpha”: Switch to Acquirer’s Multiple. It technically works better, but you will own some very ugly companies.

GPT’s and Claude’s Take:

Kurang lebih sama dengan keputusan Gemini.

Piotroski F-Score di Bursa Efek Indonesia (2019)

Jika kita menggunakan metode BUY and HOLD pada tahun 2015 untuk 18 saham yang diperoleh sebelumnya, maka hingga akhir tahun 2018 return portofolio yang diperoleh adalah sebesar 39,95%. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukan kinerja portolio yang dibentuk dengan metode Piotrosky F-Score baik dan sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa metode Piotrosky F-Score mampu memberikan komposisi portofolio yang optimal.

https://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/JIMB/article/view/9438

Magic Formula vs Piotroski F-Score di Indonesia

Riset Magic Formula + Piotroski F Score dari ratusan website (oleh Gemini, Perplexity, Copilot).

Kesimpulan yg sama dari: Gemini, GPT, Claude, Grok, Kimi (100% 5 AI ini sepakat)

Download file riset di sini: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aAWCbZeCeeBHrAcF1iezaNYQl0XOc7CF/view?usp=sharing